Lessons from Waterloo to Washington: How Federal Employees Can Conquer Market Chaos

From Waterloo to Washington: How Federal Employees Can Conquer Market Chaos

I recently dusted off an article I wrote years ago—turns out, it’s more relevant than ever.
Especially after headlines like this one from CNBC:

“Markets Plunge as Trade War Tensions Escalate—Investors Rattle Amid Global Slowdown Fears.”

For federal law enforcement officers, financial uncertainty isn’t just an abstract concern—it’s real, personal, and impacts both your career and retirement. Whether it’s rising inflation, changes to federal benefits, shifts in TSP (Thrift Savings Plan) performance, or the overall economy, you’re likely wondering:

• How will market volatility impact my retirement savings?
• Is my TSP allocation still appropriate for today’s economy?
• Will government budget cuts affect my pension or benefits?
• How do I preserve my financial future in unpredictable times?

The uncomfortable answer is quite simple—and quite unsettling.

We just don’t know.

This fact, however, hasn’t stopped people from making predictions. From financial analysts to politicians to your colleagues in the squad room, everyone has an opinion on what’s coming next.

But as a law enforcement officer, you know the importance of sticking to strategy under pressure. Just as you rely on tactics and preparation in the field, you must apply the same discipline to your financial plan.

The first step is understanding something called the Fog of War—and how today’s economy might be putting your financial future in a haze.

The Fog of War: A Definition

The Fog of War (German: Nebel des Krieges) refers to the uncertainty and confusion in military operations. It describes how rapidly changing conditions, incomplete information, and high stress can lead to poor decision-making.

For law enforcement officers, this concept isn’t foreign. Whether you’re on a surveillance detail, executing a warrant, or handling a high-pressure situation, you know that decision-making under stress can mean the difference between success and failure.

The same principle applies to financial decisions.

When markets are volatile and retirement plans take a hit, it’s easy to react emotionally—selling low, abandoning a strategy, or making choices that hurt you long-term.

Ask yourself: What should I do with my money right now?

Financial Fog of War for Federal Law Enforcement

Napoleon Bonaparte was one of history’s greatest military minds—yet he lost spectacularly at Waterloo. In fact, he was winning for 80% of the battle before his infamous defeat.

As an advisor who has helped federal employees navigate the Dot-Com Bust, the Great Recession, the COVID market collapse, and now today’s economic turmoil, I see investors making the same mistakes, time and time again.

So I have to ask:

• Does the Fog of War mirror what federal law enforcement officers are experiencing in their financial lives?
• Is your retirement plan battle-tested for economic uncertainty?
• If even Napoleon could miscalculate, what chance does the average investor have?

We can’t completely avoid financial fog. But we can arm ourselves against its effects by recognizing two major factors that often lead to financial mistakes:

1. A poor strategic decision made before the “battle” that leaves an investor exposed.
2. A mistake made under duress—one that would not have happened under normal circumstances.

Ask yourself:

• Has the current bear market and inflation exposed weaknesses in my retirement planning?
• Am I making emotional financial decisions because of economic uncertainty?
• Do I have the right balance of risk and security in my TSP, FERS, or pension planning?

The Importance of Margin of Safety—Aka Reinforcements

Let’s look to Napoleon’s disaster at Waterloo for guidance.

A margin of safety in military terms is like keeping a reserve force behind the lines—only committing them when necessary. The Duke of Wellington, Napoleon’s adversary, strategically positioned his reinforcements where they could be deployed quickly and flexibly.

Napoleon, however, underestimated the importance of his opponents reserves He delayed his attack, not realizing that Wellington’s reinforcements were on their way.

As federal law enforcement officers, your financial reinforcements come in many forms: an emergency fund, diversified investments, and a stress tested retirement planning.

• Do you have enough liquidity in your emergency fund?
• Are you too aggressive or too conservative in your TSP allocation?
• Do you have Roth balances in your TSP to allow for future tax flexibility?
• Are you prepared for unexpected career shifts, budget changes, or retirement timeline adjustments?

If you feel financially exposed, now is the time to shore up your defenses.

• Increase savings.
• Re-evaluate your tax situation.
• Adjust your investment allocations if needed.

When things don’t go as planned, having reserves gives you the ability to stay the course and avoid reactionary mistakes.

Your Financial Decision-Making Strategy

Now let’s examine mistake #2: Making poor decisions under stress.

Napoleon’s biggest error at Waterloo was his delay in execution.

Instead of attacking like he planned in the early morning, he waited for better battlefield conditions. That decision gave the Wellington’s allies, the Prussians time to arrive, turning the tide of battle.

Like a military campaign, a solid investment strategy isn’t just about having a plan—it’s about knowing when to stick to it and when to adjust.

Federal Law Enforcement Officers Face a Similar Challenge:

• Should I adjust my TSP allocations during market downturns?
• Should I take my Social Security or FERS pension earlier or wait?
• Should I be more aggressive or more conservative in my investment approach?

The answer depends on having a pre-determined strategy—not reacting to short-term fear.

For example, do you have a pre-planned loss tolerance?  Loss tolerance is the amount of volatility you can endure before deviating from your investment plan.

No competent general expects zero casualties in battle. They would never win a battly because they would be afraid to lose anyone.  Likewise, no wise investor expects zero losses in the market.

If you panic and abandon your investment strategy, you make paper losses permanent. This is one way the Fog of War in investing leads to irreversible mistakes.

One way to combat panic is to check not just your account balance, but your actual TSP holdings.

You’ll notice the amount of shares you own in your TSP does not decline even when the value does.

Your reinforcements are still there—they just need time to recover.

Key Takeaways

In uncertain times, it’s easy to forget that market rebounds are inevitable—even if we don’t know exactly when they’ll happen.

The last few years have made it seem like stock market downturns were rare. We may have become overconfident—just like Napoleon.

But here’s the difference: Market losses aren’t permanent unless you make them so. If you stick to your strategy and avoid panic-selling, your investments will recover.

Conclusion: Keep Your Head in the Fog

2025 may feel like an eternity for federal law enforcement officers. We started the year optimistic, then:

• Inflation remained stubbornly high and the Fed didn’t lower rates.
• Trade war tensions blew up.
• The financial markets stumbled
• Layoffs are a possibility.
• The press coverage is incessant.

It may feel like time to retreat. But that might not be the best thing. 

Economic downturns and bear markets are natural. Use this time to reinforce your financial position, adjust strategically, and avoid costly mistakes.

Napoleon himself once said:

“A military genius is the man who can do the average thing when everyone else around him is losing his mind.”

The same holds true for investors. Keep your head, stay the course, and don’t let the Fog of War lead you into unnecessary defeat.

Happy planning!

Anthony Bucci is the founder of Mission Point Planning & Retirement, where he specializes in helping federal law enforcement officers navigate the transition into retirement with clarity and confidence. Drawing on over 20 years of experience, he developed the Grade Step Retirement (GS-Retirement) Process, a custom blueprint built specifically for FERS LEO with practical strategies in retirement income, tax planning, and TSP optimization to help LEOs retire on their terms.

Anthony Bucci a frequent contributor to FedSmith, Tony helps federal law enforcement professionals cut through financial noise and make smart retirement decisions

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The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

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• There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

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